Since its inception, international relations theory
has been the subject of intense scrutiny and criticism as its
proponents have attempted to have international relations accepted in
the same manner as hard sciences or at least social sciences.
Unfortunately, one of the most enduring
criticisms of international relations theory, as a science, has been
its inability to formulate any definitive laws that make international
relations theory a quantifiable science that can be used to predict
interstate behavior with any reliability.
After all, how can a theory of behavior, when
confronted with all the components and complexities of international
behavior be able to predict with any regularity a particular outcome?
However, while international relations theory may not take it as an
exact science, the development and refining of state behavior does
lend itself to predicting the likelihood of state behavior given a
certain set of circumstances.
This paper sought to strengthen the utility of
the international relations theory by examining the prospects for
peace in the Middle East by reviewing relevant international relations
theories on the causes and amelioration of conflict, and what these
theories might predict for future regional stability and the peace
process. Examination of relevant theories assists in deducing the
likelihood of any future agreement between Israel and its neighbors in
bringing lasting peace to the region. The theories were evaluated as
to whether they predict exacerbation, amelioration, or neutrality with
regard to the development of Arab-Israeli conflict.
The theories selected for review were:
1. Arms race as a cause of war.
2. Contiguous territory as a cause of war.
3. Alliances as a cause of war.
4. Democratic peace theory in ameliorating war.
5. Collective security arrangements.
Unfortunately, most of the theories examined did
not support the contention that Israeli withdrawal from territories
captured in the 1967 Six Day War would resolve the fundamental issues
involved. Indeed, dispute over the territories is only one segment of
the Arab-Israeli conflict, and is of tertiary importance in resolving
the underlying core issues of the conflict.
The
regional arms race, contiguous borders, historical rivalry, and
regional alliances theories have negative ramifications for peaceful
resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict. While collective security and
the regional proliferation of democracy have the potential to
alleviate security concerns caused by the other factors, there is not
much optimism that specific regional features are propitious for their
development. Western concepts of democracy have failed to garner the
popular support of the Arab masses and regimes in the region.
Moreover, short term trends militate against the proliferation of
regional democracy as existing Arab regimes confront rising Islamic
fundamentalism. Additionally, divergent economic and political
interests have precluded Western governments from forming an effective
collective response to those elements that currently pose a danger to
regional and global security.
