Demographic,
socio-economic, political and cultural-psychological shifting processes,
together with the importance of a few rulers, assure instability in most of the
domain of Islam, with much anti-Western insurgence. At the same time,
technological and military capacities of Islamic actors are increasing, soon
including mass killing weapons with global reach. Therefore, in the twenty-first
century insurgent Islam in its aggressive and fanatic forms of state and
non-state actors will pose a major threat to the West and humanity as a whole.
Hence the need for a long-term grand-strategy to prevent, contain and
counter-act it. Main components recommended for such a grand-strategy include:
(1) relating
respectfully to Islam;
(2) selective
accommodation, with red lines;
(3) helping
socio-economic development;
(4) curbing
aggressive actors;
(5) reducing
aggressive capacities;
(6) holding states
and rulers strictly accountable;
(7) damage
limitation; and
(8) if all fails:
moving towards a Global Leviathan.
To work out and
apply the grand strategy to shifting situations, much shared strategic thinking
and planning by the West in needed in cooperation with other major countries and
civilizations and with non-aggressive Islamic states, together with preparation
of fitting action capabilities. The USA, together with the European Union, have
to take the lead in doing so. Tragic but imperative is the necessity to adjust
Western values so as to adopt “immoral” measures, so as to avoid greater moral
evil. But, first of all, fanatic Islam must be recognized as a serious threat
justifying determined counter-action within a coherent, fully considered and
carefully applied grand strategy.
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