ACPR - Policy Paper 122 - Facing Insurgent Islam

Demographic, socio-economic, political and cultural-psychological shifting processes, together with the importance of a few rulers, assure instability in most of the domain of Islam, with much anti-Western insurgence. At the same time, technological and military capacities of Islamic actors are increasing, soon including mass killing weapons with global reach. Therefore, in the twenty-first century insurgent Islam in its aggressive and fanatic forms of state and non-state actors will pose a major threat to the West and humanity as a whole. Hence the need for a long-term grand-strategy to prevent, contain and counter-act it. Main components recommended for such a grand-strategy include: (1) relating respectfully to Islam; (2) selective accommodation, with red lines; (3) helping socio-economic development; (4) curbing aggressive actors; (5) reducing aggressive capacities; (6) holding states and rulers strictly accountable; (7) damage limitation; and (8) if all fails: moving towards a Global Leviathan. To work out and apply the grand strategy to shifting situations, much shared strategic thinking and planning by the West in needed in cooperation with other major countries and civilizations and with non-aggressive Islamic states, together with preparation of fitting action capabilities. The USA, together with the European Union, have to take the lead in doing so. Tragic but imperative is the necessity to adjust Western values so as to adopt “immoral” measures, so as to avoid greater moral evil. But, first of all, fanatic Islam must be recognized as a serious threat justifying determined counter-action within a coherent, fully considered and carefully applied grand strategy.