In this chapter, we will describe
and analyze the 1) nuclear weapons capabilities and technologies, 2) development
and acquisition plans and programs, and 3) statements on strategy and goals, for
the following eight countries: Pakistan, Iraq, Iran,
Libya, Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and
Algeria.
For each country, we will present
information based on a detailed study of the sources, including US government
and other official reports, the academic literature, and press reports. The
country assessments will also include analysis of technological acquisitions
(including dual-use systems, materials, and facilities), delivery systems such
as ballistic missiles, and cooperation with third countries, including Russia,
China, and North Korea.
On this basis, the implications
of the proliferation of nuclear weapons and technology in the Arab and Islamic
world will be analyzed. In the case of Pakistan, this section will focus on the
impact of the nuclear weapons capability on the balance of power in the region
(including the Persian Gulf), on the nuclear ambitions and programs of the other
states in the region, and the potential for transfer of technology and
experienced personnel. Regarding the Iraqi and Iranian nuclear acquisition
programs, we will examine the security implications for the region (including
Israel), and for future deployment of US and NATO forces and interests in the
region. We will also consider the implications of the accelerating nuclear
proliferation process in this region for European security interests.
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