Despite fielding one of the largest
militaries in the region, Iraq poses a negligible challenge to US forces
in any potential conventional confrontation. A decade of sanctions has
left Iraqi conventional forces in disarray and ill prepared for modern
combat. Iraq’s armored forces and aircraft are less than half the size
they were prior to the 1991 Gulf War.
More important, these forces are
antiquated as compared to US forces. Unlike in 1991, the United States
enjoys an enormous familiarity with the area of operations, potential
targets, and the potential threat. With the possible exception of the
Republican Guard forces, the Iraqi forces are poorly trained, lack
competent leadership, and are suffering from low morale. These factors,
coupled with a decade of technological improvements in US smart weapons,
will ensure that any conventional war will result in a decisive military
victory within a short period of time.
This reality has prompted Saddam
Hussein to try to continue his robust non-conventional weapons
development program. While the UN weapons inspection regime, coupled
with international sanctions, has retarded its non-conventional weapons
development program, it has not prevented Iraq from making substantial
progress in its programs. Currently, Iraq possess a credible biological
and chemical offensive capability and is close (within 1-3 years) to
producing a nuclear weapon. Acquisition of a nuclear weapon will afford
Iraq a deterrent credibility that will allow it to continue its pursuit
of regional hegemony.
The main
challenges to United States military operations are political. The
international community, driven by a fear of war and lucrative economic
deals with Iraq, currently opposes US military operations. Iraq will
attempt to exploit this schism by agreeing to another UN inspection
regime. Iraq estimates that it can hide critical components of its
weapons of mass destruction programs from inspectors and forestall
military operations.
