Because of its limited size and
resources, Israel’s defense doctrine is based on a small standing army
and Air Force that will blunt any attack and enable mobilization of the
reserves.
In theory, Israel is vulnerable to
a surprise attack that may cripple its Air Force and reserve
mobilization. Since Arab air forces have in the past generally failed to
penetrate Israeli airspace, these countries have acquired ballistic
missiles to achieve this goal. Predictions derived from Arab tables of
organization, which are based on Soviet practices, use questionable
numbers. Furthermore, launchers, the number of which will be critical in
any surprise attack, are easy to manufacture and chemical and biological
agents might be employed to achieve meaningful results.
As a
result of a terrorist atrocity or a political upheaval in one of the
region's countries, Israel may be drawn into a war that may start by an
attempt to overwhelm its defenses and population by missile attacks.
Anti-missile defenses will give potential aggressors second thoughts but
are contingent on numerically and organizationally strong defense
systems, capable of repulsing a massive first strike.
