Both supporters and opponents of the peace
process agree that for Israel to take the requisite risks for peace it
needs to understand the intentions of its neighbors. A critical component
towards understanding their neighbors' intentions can be found in how much
these countries are spending on defense. Supporters of the peace process
claim that it is ameliorating the prospects for future conflict between
Israel and its neighbors. If this is true, then we should expect a
simultaneous reduction in arms expenditures by these countries as they
divert resources from their military to attend to their acute social and
economic problems.
Unfortunately, the peace process, rather
than providing a peace dividend, has augured in an unprecedented era of
weapons proliferation in the region. Most notable, has been the
proliferation of weapons from the West which has been precipitated by
competition among these western countries for lucrative sales contracts
from Israel’s Arab neighbors. This proliferation seems to cast doubt on
the contention that the Gulf War and the subsequent Oslo peace process
have ushered in a new era of peace and prosperity in the Middle East.
More important, it appears that Israel's
strategic planners are making a fatal error in their strategic threat
assessments of their two biggest contiguous neighbors, Syria and Egypt.
Indeed, actual military spending by these two countries far exceeds that
reported in standard sources such as The Military Balance; the
Jaffee Center’s Middle East Military Balance; and the Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute. For example, these sources report
that Syria spends approximately $1.7 billion in military expenditures.
However, a cursory review of the size of Syria’s military reflects that
these figures are grossly underestimated and that actual expenditures are
far greater than those reported. This paper analyzes Syrian military
expenditures and examines these expenditures in the context of its
declared willingness to make peace with Israel.
