China’s
missile and nuclear supply to Pakistan, and India’s belated but clear
nuclear response, highlights and illustrates the problem of missile
proliferation and missile defense in two connected regions of conflict
viz. South Asia and the Middle East. China’s military supply behavior
in Pakistan (and Iran), and Clinton administration support of PRC
activity in the 1990s, brought out of the closet a new problem in
international relations, i.e. the non-proliferators (USA and PRC in
South-Asia, and Russia and China in Iran) are also dangerous promoters
of proliferation in regions of conflict in a selective way; they insist
on the importance of non-proliferation with their adversaries, and they
support or tolerate proliferation with their strategic partners.
Selective proliferation by members of international non-proliferation
regimes vis-à-vis their friends, or where economic gain is indicated,
also highlights the fact that the supply chain cuts across traditional
regional boundaries; the suppliers’ controls are weak and the boundaries
– geographical as well as the rules of the non-proliferation regimes –
are porous. Chinese and North Korean missile supply relations with
non-nuclear weapon states reveal a supply/recipient interface between
East Asian states and South Asian/Middle Eastern states (Pakistan, Iran,
among others). Russian nuclear supplies – whether or not there are
officially approved – create a Russia/Middle East interface. To the
extent that recent Indian and Pakistani nuclear testing is likely to
further stimulate proliferation tendencies in Iran because of its
internal and strategic compulsions, a South Asian/Middle East interface
is also indicated. Can countries in the volatile South Asian and Middle
East region rely on international regimes for their security? Or do the
Indian tests signal that countries outside the NATO alliance, or who do
not trust a foreign power to protect them, must engage in self-help and
autonomy of strategic choice by independent military means or in concert
with friendly strategic partners? The recent developments in South Asia
highlight the problem of missile and nuclear proliferation and the
importance of BMD among other measures.
