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Arab Population in
the West Bank and Gaza:
The Million Person Gap
by Bennett Zimmerman, Roberta Seid, and Michael L. Wise
click
here for powerpoint
presentation
Published by the Begin-Sadat
Center for Strategic Studies, Winter 2006
“…this highly original study
makes the case that conventional estimates of the Arab populations of
Gaza and the West Bank may seriously exaggerate their true numbers
today. The argument and analysis are compelling, and should be taken as
a wake-up call….”
Leading US demographer Dr.
Nicholas Eberstadt,
American Enterprise Institute
Demography has been a driving
force behind key policy-making decisions in Israel. When the Palestine
Authority’s (PA) projected 2004 population of 3.8 million for the West
Bank and Gaza was combined with the 1.3 million Arabs in Israel, it
appeared that Arabs were nearing population parity with the 5.4 million
Jews in Israel. This equal ratio, coupled with the PA’s reports of high
growth, indicated that Jews would soon become a minority population in the
region west of the Jordan.
But this doomsday scenario is
wrong.
This study sets the record
straight. Through in-depth analysis and comparison of the existing
records, the study measures the 2004 population in the West Bank and Gaza
at 2.5 million instead of the 3.8 million reported by Palestinian
Authority officials.
Using a ‘just the facts’
approach, the study revealed major discrepancies in the Palestine Central
Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) forecast. It demonstrated that the 1997 PCBS
population base for de facto residents was inflated by the
inclusion of residents living abroad and Jerusalem Arabs already counted
in Israel’s population survey. The PCBS’ projections with respect to birth
and immigration were not met in any year between 1997 and 2004. The actual
birth data recorded annually by the PA Ministry of Health and corroborated
by the PA Ministry of Education reflected dramatically fewer births.
Instead of the predicted immigration by the PCBS, Israel’s records on
actual border entries and exits showed a steady net Arab emigration both
to countries abroad and into pre-1967 Israel and Jerusalem. Quite simply,
the PCBS predictions were never adjusted for actual reported births,
deaths and emigration each year, but were instead released as official
reports and accepted without question.
Given the magnitude of the
errors in the PCBS model -- its 2004 population was inflated by over 50%
-- demographers and state agencies would be wise to correct figures for
the current population and growth rates before performing forecasts for
the future. The findings of this study should have significant impact on
the positions of politicians, policy makers and international aid
agencies.
The authors of this study have
completed a companion piece, “Forecast for Israel and West Bank 2025,”
which will be introduced at the 6th Herzliya Conference on
January 23 2006.
“Forecast for
Israel and West Bank 2025,” picks up where “Arab Population in the West
Bank and Gaza” leaves off.
click
here for powerpoint
presentation
The authors will introduce
their new population study at the Sixth Herzliya Conference on January
23 2006. The new forecast is in part based on the results of the
original study, ‘Arab Population in the West Bank and Gaza.’ It also
contains a detailed analysis of Israel Bureau of Statistics (ICBS)
projections for the Jewish and Israeli-Arab populations until 2025. The
new findings provide a tool for policymakers and further challenges the
notion that Israeli Jews face an inevitable Arab demographic threat.
Jewish fertility rates are
currently higher than levels considered by the ICBS in its recent
forecasts. In contrast, the Israeli-Arab sector is approaching the
lowest level in the ICBS scenarios. In addition, the ICBS scenarios did
not account for the possibility of significant aliyah. This new
forecast slightly raises the range of Jewish fertility and marginally
lowers the fertility rates of Israeli Arabs to current levels. This
forecast uses the 2004 population of 1.4 million for the West Bank as
measured in the authors’ earlier study and then applies high fertility
assumptions as reported by the UN for the territory. To complete the
forecast, different immigration scenarios are considered for each
community. Low, medium and high growth assumptions were made for each
population group.
Under the forecast’s mid-case
scenario, Israeli Jews maintain current fertility of 2.7 children per
woman and aliyah averages 20,000 per year or 400,000 over two
decades. Israeli Arab fertility rates fall slowly under the new forecast
from current levels of 4.0 to a level of 3.0 over a 20-year period.
West Bank Arabs are assumed to have higher fertility levels starting at
5.4 children per woman, as forecast by the UN, but experience an
emigration of 10,000 per year, the low end of emigration recorded each
year since 1997.
With these modest
assumptions, the results reveal significantly more stability in the
Jewish demographic position than previously understood. In its most
likely middle scenario, the new study shows that in Israel, the Jewish
population, including immigrants from the former Soviet Union, declines
from 81% in 2004 to 77% in 2025. In the best case scenario for Jews, the
Jewish proportion rises to 83%. In the most likely scenario for Israel
and the West Bank, the proportion of Jews declines from 67% in 2004 to
63% in 2025. Under the best case scenario, that proportion increases to
71% by 2025.
The assumptions in this new
forecast reflect current realities while considering a full range of
potential outcomes that have been neglected by Israeli and other
demographers. “Forecast for Israel and West Bank 2025” gives
policymakers and academics a startlingly fresh and more accurate look at
demographic realities and possibilities for the future.
Contact Information:
In USA:
Bennett Zimmerman
ben@pademographics.com
Phone: 310-617-4180
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