Jerusalem Cloakroom #163

A Comprehensive Poll on Disengagement

by Yoram Ettinger
yoramtex@netvision.net.il

July 8, 2004

A Comprehensive Poll on Disengagement
Conducted by Geocartography Group
Information, Strategy & Solutions Sponsored by
The Israel Institute for Public Policy Polls
Last week of June 2004
(503 sample of the Jewish population)

General:

1.  The poll was conducted while Israel’s government and the entire media (TV, radio and newspapers) were engaged in an intensive campaign for Disengagement, while the opponents were dormant (following their victory in the Likud Referendum).
    

2. The results of the poll are dramatically more politically-incorrect than those, which preceded the Likud Referendum, and at variance with other current polls, which are not as comprehensive. Precedents - in Israel - indicate that the majority of the “undecided” tend to support the politically-incorrect option, but are reluctant to admit it to pollsters.
    

3.  To realize the potential impact of the coming educational campaign, (which made the difference during the Likud Referendum), one should note that the May 2, 2004 Likud Referendum was announced when the proponents held a 30% edge. The one month long educational campaign, which followed, produced a 50% net shift (hence, a 20% edge) for the opponents.

 Poll Results:

1. 51%:32% believe that the evacuation of the Gaza Jewish communities would escalate/diminish Palestinian motivation to fight Israel. 8% assume that it would have no effect and 9% have no opinion. One may conclude that 59% (51%+8%) do not believe that disengagement would improve the situation, and therefore would be reluctant to pay the price of the disengagement (exacerbated terror, intra-Israel strife, multi-billion dollar cost). 
    

2. 55%:25% believe that the evacuation of the Gaza Jewish communities would magnify/diminish the threat of missiles to Ashqelon, Ashdod and the Negev. 9% assume that it would have no effect and 11% have no opinion. One may conclude that 64% (55%+9%) do not believe that disengagement would improve the situation, and therefore would be reluctant to pay the price of the disengagement (exacerbated terror, intra-Israel strife, multi-billion dollar cost). 
    

3. 61%:15% believe that the evacuation of the Gaza Jewish communities would accelerate/slow down the flow of military supplies to Gaza. 10% assume that it would have no effect and 14% have no opinion. One may conclude that 71% (61%+10%) do not believe that disengagement would improve the situation, and therefore would be reluctant to pay the price of the disengagement (exacerbated terror, intra-Israel strife, multi-billion dollar cost).
    

4. 37%:37% believe that the evacuation of the Gaza Jewish communities would increase/decrease terrorism; 13% assume that it would have no effect and 13% have no opinion. One may conclude that 50% (37%+13%) do not believe that disengagement would improve the situation, and therefore would be reluctant to pay the price of the disengagement (exacerbated terror, intra-Israel strife, multi-billion dollar cost).
    

5. 36%:35% believe that the evacuation of the Gaza Jewish communities would advance/regress peace with the Palestinians. 18% assume that it would have no effect and 11% have no opinion. One may conclude that 54% (36%+18%) do not believe that disengagement would improve the situation, and therefore would be reluctant to pay the price of the disengagement (exacerbated terror, intra-Israel strife, multi-billion dollar cost).
    

6. 71%:15% believe that the introduction of Egyptian military personnel into Gaza would restrain/free Israel’s counter-terrorism effort. 7% assume that it would have no effect and 6% have no opinion. One may conclude that 78% (71%+7%) do not believe that disengagement would improve the situation, and therefore would be reluctant to pay the price of the disengagement (exacerbated terror, intra-Israel strife, multi-billion dollar cost).
    

7. 72%:16% believe that the introduction of Egyptian military personnel into Gaza would require/preclude Israel’s counter-terrorism operations in Gaza. 12% have no opinion.
    

8. 48%:39% believe that the introduction of Egyptian military personnel into Gaza would undermine/enhance Israel’s security. 13% have no opinion.
    

9. 49%:44% support the evacuation of Jewish communities from Gaza and northern Samaria. 7% have no opinion. Factoring the tendency by the “undecided” to oppose the politically-correct position, one assumes a tie (while the government and the media are engaged in an aggressive campaign on behalf of disengagement, and the politically-incorrect is still dormant).